Equivalences in design of experiments

The statistical theory of experimental designs was initiated by Fisher in the 1920s in the context of agricultural experiments performed at the Rothamsted Experimental Station. Applications of experimental designs in industry started in the 1930s, but really took off after World War II. The second half of the 20th century witnessed both a widespread application of experimental designs in industrial settings and tremendous advances in the mathematical and statistical theory. Recent technological developments in biology (DNA microarrays) and chemical engineering (high-throughput reactors) generated new challenges in experimental design. So experimental designs is a lively subject with a rich history from both an applied and theoretical point of view. This thesis is mainly an exploration of the mathematical framework underlying factorial designs, an important subclass of experimental designs. Factorial designs are probably the most widely used type of experimental designs in industry. The literature on experimental designs is either example-based with lack of general statements and clear definitions or so abstract that the link to real applications is lost. With this thesis we hope to contribute to closing this gap. By restricting ourselves to factorial designs it is possible to provide a framework which is mathematically rigorous yet applicable in practice. A mathematical framework for factorial designs is given in Chapter 2. Each of the subsequent chapters is devoted to a specific topic related to factorial designs. In Chapter 3 we study coding full factorial designs by finite Abelian groups. This idea was introduced by Fisher in the 1940s to study confounding. Confounding arises when one performs only a fraction of a full factorial design. Using the character theory of finite Abelian groups we show that definitions of so-called regular fractions given by Collombier (1996), Wu and Hamada (2000) and Pistone and Rogantin (2005) are equivalent. An important ingredient in our approach is the special role played by the cosets of the finite Abelian group. We moreover use character theory to prove that any regular fraction when interpreted as a coset is an orthogonal array of a certain strength related to the resolution of that fraction. This is a generalization of results by Rao and Bose for regular fractions of symmetric factorial designs with a prime power as the number of levels. The standard way to analyze factorial designs is analysis of variance. Diaconis and Viana have shown that the well-known sums of squares decomposition in analysis of variance for full factorial designs naturally arises from harmonic analysis on a finite Abelian group. We give a slight extension of their setup by developing the theoretical aspects of harmonic analysis of data structured on cosets of finite Abelian groups. In Chapter 4 we study the estimation of dispersion parameters in a mixed linear model. This is the common model behind modern engineering approaches to experimental design like the Taguchi approach. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of translation invariant unbiased estimators for the dispersion parameters in the mixed linear model. We show that the estimators for the dispersion parameters in Malley (1986) and Liao and Iyer (2000) are equivalent. In the 1980s Box and Meyer initiated the identification of dispersion effects from unreplicated factorial experiments. They did not give an explicit estimation procedure for the dispersion parameters. We show that the well-known estimators for dispersion effects proposed by Wiklander (1998), Liao and Iyer (2000) and Brenneman and Nair (2001) coincide for two-level full factorial designs and their regular fractions. Moreover, we give a definition for MINQUE estimator for the dispersion effects in two-level full factorial designs and show that the above estimators are MINQUE in this sense. Finally, in Chapter 5 we study a real-life industrial problem from a two-step production process. In this problem an intermediate product from step 1 is split into several parts in order to allow further processing in step 2. This type of situation is typically handled by using a split-plot design. However, in this specific example running a full factorial split-plot design was not feasible for economic reasons. We show how to apply recently developed analysis methods for fractional factorial split-plot designs developed by Bisgaard, Bingham and Sitter. Finally, we modified the algorithm in Franklin and Bailey (1977) to generate fractional factorial split-plot designs that identify a given set of effects while minimizing the number of required intermediate products

Modelling user behaviour at a stochastic road traffic bottleneck

Congestion in road traffic has received substantial attention in the research literature. One popular approach to modelling congesting and user response is the seminal bottleneck model introduced by Vickrey [25]. Here traffic is modelled as a fluid, and all travellers are subject to cost for waiting, early departure, and late departure. The travellers' response to the congestion is captured by assuming that they arrive at the bottleneck according to a Wardrop equilibrium, meaning that no traveller can decrease its costs by shifting its arrival time. This model and its extensions have been extensively studied in the research literature, but ignore the fact that road traffic consists of individual travellers with uncertain arrival time and speed. While the fluid approach used in the Vickrey model may be correct when the number of travellers is large, it fails to yield accurate predictions for a small number of travellers.In the present paper we propose a stochastic version of the bottleneck model, that can also handle smaller number of travellers. We discuss the error made by the fluid approximation, and show that the Wardrop equilibrium results in highly varying costs when applied in the more realistic setting with stochasticity. We then discuss an algorithm for numerically computing the equilibrium arrival rate for the stochastic bottleneck model, and propose a closed-form estimation for this equilibrium. This can be used for future studies into the effect of stochasticity in these bottleneck models.</p

Max-weight scheduling across multiple timescales

Many systems consist of a mixture of various resource types that together support better performance relative to those with a single resource type. One important characteristic of these systems is the fact that the various comprising resource types can operate on different timescales, implying that the corresponding control decisions are not made simultaneously. To address the resulting scheduling problem, we present and analyze two variants of max-weight scheduling that are designed to deal with the different timescales of such systems

Per-site occupancy in the discrete parking problem

We consider the classical discrete parking problem, in which cars arrive uniformly at random on any two adjacent sites out of n sites on a line. An arriving car parks if there is no overlap with previously parked cars, and leaves otherwise. This process continues until there is no more space available for cars to park, at which point we may compute the jamming density En/n, which represents the expected fraction of occupied sites. We extend the classical results by not just considering the total expected number of cars parked, but also the probability of each site being occupied by a car. This we then use to provide an alternative derivation of the jamming density

Instability of MaxWeight scheduling algorithms

MaxWeight scheduling algorithms provide an effective mechanism for achieving queue stability and guaranteeing maximum throughput in a wide variety of scenarios. The maximum-stability guarantees however rely on the fundamental premise that the system consists of a fixed set of sessions with stationary ergodic traffic processes. In the present paper we examine a scenario where the population of active sessions varies over time, as sessions eventually end while new sessions occasionally start. We identify a simple necessary and sufficient condition for stability, and show that MaxWeight policies may fail to provide maximum stability. The intuitive explanation is that these policies tend to give preferential treatment to flows with large backlogs, so that the rate variations of flows with smaller backlogs are not fully exploited. In the usual framework with a fixed collection of flows, the latter phenomenon cannot persist since the flows with smaller backlogs will build larger queues and gradually start receiving more service. With a dynamic population of flows, however, MaxWeight policies may constantly get diverted to arriving flows, while neglecting the rate variations of a persistently growing number of flows in progress with relatively small remaining backlogs. We also perform extensive simulation experiments to corroborate the analytical findings

Balancing exposed and hidden nodes in linear wireless networks

Wireless networks equipped with the CSMA protocol are subject to collisions due to interference. For a given interference range, we investigate the tradeoff between collisions (hidden nodes) and unused capacity (exposed nodes). We show that the sensing range that maximizes throughput critically depends on the activation rate of nodes. For infinite line networks, we prove the existence of a threshold: When the activation rate is below this threshold, the optimal sensing range is small (to maximize spatial reuse). When the activation rate is above the threshold, the optimal sensing range is just large enough to preclude all collisions. Simulations suggest that this threshold policy extends to more complex linear and nonlinear topologies. Keywords: Carrier-sensing range; Markov processes; collisions; exposed nodes; hidden nodes; random-access; throughput; wireless network

Managing appointment booking under customer choices

Motivated by the increasing use of online appointment booking platforms, we study how to offer appointment slots to customers to maximize the total number of slots booked. We develop two models, nonsequential offering and sequential offering, to capture different types of interactions between customers and the scheduling system. In these two models, the scheduler offers either a single set of appointment slots for the arriving customer to choose from or multiple sets in sequence, respectively. For the nonsequential model, we identify a static randomized policy, which is asymptotically optimal when the system demand and capacity increase simultaneously, and we further show that offering all available slots at all times has a constant factor of two performance guarantee. For the sequential model, we derive a closed form optimal policy for a large class of instances and develop a simple, effective heuristic for those instances without an explicit optimal policy. By comparing these two models, our study generates useful operational insights for improving the current appointment booking processes. In particular, our analysis reveals an interesting equivalence between the sequential offering model and the nonsequential offering model with perfect customer preference information. This equivalence allows us to apply sequential offering in a wide range of interactive scheduling contexts. Our extensive numerical study shows that sequential offering can significantly improve the slot fill rate (6%–8% on average and up to 18% in our testing cases) compared with nonsequential offering. Given the recent and ongoing growth of online and mobile appointment booking platforms, our research findings can be particularly useful to inform user interface design of these booking platforms